Ups and downs of Horse Racing

May saw a lot of positive green days enabling us to make a profit of £200 on the month.

June starts okay, we’re using the system process as May and then wallop you get 2 disaster days, and the profit is wiped out.

Processes have been the same so why the sudden hit.

There will be a degree of Maths involved with variance balancing the scales, but that can’t be all of it.

On 5^th June we had 4 bets on the evening cards and 3 of them went on to win the race.

I went back and examined the what’s and why’s as regards making the selections.

Division Day – The Trainer was 1/74 and on a terrible run. I wouldn’t have changed that selection at all. Stats based and like all statistical matters they end up being broken at some stage. I picked that day.

Antigua – I passed on the Combination’s earlier ride as I though that had a good chance of winning which it did. This one looked vulnerable and opposable. The question is would I have put it up had I known the result of the earlier race? Would caution have taken over?  The truth is I don’t know.

This is one of the problems with putting lay bets out early. A change in the day, withdrawals, going, jockey change etc can’t be accounted for.

The other side of the coin is that some members can’t do live betting due to other commitments, so a live only service doesn’t cater for all.

That side of it remains a conundrum.

Dion Baker – This one I should have left alone. I didn’t understand why they had changed the distance and other areas. I ended up in tunnel vision and should have just said to myself “we don’t need it let it pass”.

Those losses were compounded with 3 more the next day.

Wee Mary – Completely over thought that one as I indicated and another, I should have walked away from.

Sparks Fly – I would select again as I’m of the view we were undone by the weather ultimately. Rain made it ripe for the horse and the ride made it 100 times better. One of those you must acknowledge they were smarter than you on the day.

Furturra – One that falls between the cracks really. The breeding process I used for this one has been successful more than it hasn’t. If I throw it out, then I’m only taking away a decent stream of losers. It’s a process you must go with for the whole season to see the benefit as it is a longer-term strategy.

Overall assessment, yes there were a couple of mistakes in there that I should have avoided, but it was the perfect storm, literally at Epsom, where all the bets went down in a 48hr period, leaving us battered and bruised.

We took a similar battering In January 2025, but it was much worse.

I jiggled a few bits there but stuck with basic core principles and managed to recover.

We are in an okay position and whilst laying won’t make you rich overnight, it will teach you discipline and long term profits can be made.